ICPS issued a second assessment of local/regional measures for April-June 2019

International Centre for Policy Studies presented a second assessment of local/regional activities within the framework of the project “Promoting transparency and implementation of anti-corruption measures in state-owned enterprises and local governments in Ukraine”. The initiative is carried out in partnership with the Institute for Economic and Social Reforms in Slovakia (INEKO) and is financially supported under the program “Official Development Assistance of the Slovak Republic (SlovakAid)”. The project is aimed at increasing the efficiency of public administration, local governments and civil society in the area of regional policy, state-owned enterprises, budget monitoring and openness of information of local authorities. The main objective of the initiative is to improve the quality of regional and/or municipal regulation and legislation by publishing a regular peer review of socio-economic measures proposed or implemented by local government bodies in Ukraine. The purpose of the assessment is to describe practices that may also be applied by other administrations. Measures for evaluation were identified and analyzed with the support of the expert council, which was selected by  International Centre for Policy Studies based on their experience. As a result, eight local and regional measures are described in this publication, two of which are addressing the infrastructural issues, two are social projects, two are contest projects together with the measures for the beautification of the area and improving the branding of the city. Three of them are innovative and may have positive significant impact on the economic and social development of Ukraine. We hope that these practices can promote good ideas and inspire their implementation throughout Ukraine. The most positive attitude of experts was to projects related to the development of the transport infrastructure of cities. Thus, the project "Acceptance of purchase of new trolleybuses for the money of the EBRD" (Poltava) received the highest score (1st place), because it involves the allocation of money from the European Bank, which already indicates about its relevance and validity. In addition, these credit resources are beneficial for the borrower (in terms of timing and value), which also resulted in the absence of significant remarks from experts. The project on the development and approval of the "Sustainable mobility plan of the city" (Zhytomyr), which is aimed at introducing the European experience in the rational organization of transport connection and traffic management in a large city, is in the second place by the importance and expert's support. This measure for planning the development of the transport network in the modern city was noted by experts as a project with a prospect for the future and with a significant potential for implementation in the form of public-private partnership. Among the two social projects (third and fifth place), the "Contest of Social Projects of Civil Society Institutions" (Odessa), which contains 11 areas / nominations covering the important social problems, received the highest score. Experts have positively evaluated the way of distributing the funds, namely, holding a competition among the NGOs with a subsequent public presentation. In their opinion, this leads to more thorough project development and transparency of funding. Among the measures with the lowest experts` evaluation were the project of approval of the city logo (Ivano-Frankivsk city), which has no significant impact on the socio-economic living standards of the population of the city, and the project for the reconstruction of the park (Kropyvnytskyi city), the cost of which is significant for the city budget on the background of careless execution of works and a large number of unresolved acute social problems. The detailed evaluation can be found here: Monitoring of Local and Development Policies in Ukraine (April 2019 - June 2019) window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'UA-122353741-2');...

ICPS Press
28.06.2019

ICPS presents the effectiveness rating of Ukrainian political parties

The experts of the International Center for Policy Studies presented a study “Rating of activity and effectiveness of political parties” which analyzed what parties engaged in throughout the last political cycle, who is active in electoral campaigns, who holds power at local and national levels, and what do extra-parliamentary political bodies do. The presentation and roundtable discussion over results took place at Ukrinform, on Wednesday the 26th of June. Political scientists, sociologists and political representatives took part in the dialogue. ICPS expert Maxim Stepanenko said that the formation of political parties in Ukraine began during the democratization of socio-political life in the country. In 1989, the People's Movement of Ukraine was founded, which can be considered the first political party in modern Ukraine. Over the course of 30 years of party development in Ukraine, the trends and principles governing modern parties have changed. Many parties, who once played a key role in the political life, ceased to exist. "On the horizon, in the next 10 to 20 years, the ranking of active and effective parties will change, so Batkivshchyna currently demonstrates a better result, while Poroshenko's "Solidarity" block did not exist in the past and it does not exist now. It was created only for one political cycle and made history. For us, the main focal point is on the current players, so the focus of our study is on the political cycle of 2014-2019" said Igor Petrenko, head of the ICPS political department. According to the Center's survey, among the 352 parties registered in Ukraine as of the beginning of 2019, five leaders can be singled out: Batkivshchyna (350,37 points), PPB Solidarity (349,73 points), "Opposition bloc" (346.59 points), Oleg Lyashko’s "Radical party" (340.02 points) and "Ukrainian association of patriots - UKROP" (333.12 points). Opposing political forces rank highly in the top 5; political forces are on polar opposite sides, the party in power and extra-parliamentary powers. All five party leaders are champions in our ranking due to a balanced result on all indicators. For the first spot rival "Batkivshchyna" and "Solidarity", that significantly outperform the other opponents. In order to understand what factors have determined the place of parties in the ranking, it is necessary to consider in more detail the methodology of the research and its final results. Methodology The rating of political parties is intended to be assessed as the activity and effectiveness of the parties. It is a question of assessing precisely political parties and not their individual representatives in cases when they act in the field of public policy without being bound by the party. Since the key functions of the parties are related to the election, the study includes only registered parties that have the right to vote (352 lots as of January 1, 2019). The activities of political parties in Ukraine was conducted using a rating measure that took into account the analysis and comparison of quantitative and measurable qualitative indicators. According to the experts, the rating includes four thematic indexes, each of which reflects a separate function of the parties and can be analyzed independently of each other: 1) The index of electoral activity - involves analysis candidates registration, lists of candidates and their participation in elections of different levels. 2) The index of electoral efficiency - involves an analysis of the results achieved by the party and its candidates in the elections. 3) The index of information activity - involves an analysis of the party’s work with public opinion through the media, the presentation of the parties’ ideas by the speakers to a wide audience. 4) The index of goal orientated problem solving in projects - analysis of the work that parties do in approaching significant problems of citizens or individual social groups, their proposed solution through program proposals, the formation of a political and socioeconomic agenda for their supporters. The final ranking is based on its results in all four thematic indexes. TOP-20 active and political parties of Ukraine in the period of 2014-2019 1. All-Ukrainian Association "Batkivshchyna" 2. "SOLIDARITY" PARTY (now the political party "European Solidarity") 3. "Opposition Bloc" 4. The radical party of Oleg Lyashko 5. "UKRAINIAN ASSOCIATION OF PATRIOTS - UKROP" 6. “Association "Self Reliance” 7. "Our land" 8. All-Ukrainian Association "Svoboda" (Freedom) 9. Political party "Civic Position" 10.  "PUBLIC MOVEMENT" PEOPLE'S CONTROL " 11. "Revival" 12. "PEOPLE’S FRONT" 13. "The Power of People" 14. "Will of the people" 15. People's Party 16. "VALENTIN NALIVAYCHENKO’S PUBLIC-POLITICAL MOVEMENT "JUSTICE " 17. Agrarian Party of Ukraine 18. “Spravy” 19. "Volia" 20. "SOCIALISTS"   The full research and rating are available here (in Ukrainian)....

26.06.2019

ICPS starts an assessment of local/regional activities

International Centre for Policy Studies starts an assessment of local/regional activities within the framework of the project “Promoting transparency and implementation of anti-corruption measures in state-owned enterprises and local governments in Ukraine”. The initiative is carried out in partnership with the Institute for Economic and Social Reforms in Slovakia (INEKO) and is financially supported under the program “Official Development Assistance of the Slovak Republic (SlovakAid)”. The project is aimed at increasing the efficiency of public administration, local governments and civil society in the area of regional policy, state-owned enterprises, budget monitoring and openness of information of local authorities. The first edition of series of local and regional policy assessments introduced in December 2018 - March 2019 was carried out. Future evaluations will be conducted on a quarterly basis. In total, more than 20 local politicians will be assembled and streamlined by the end of the project. The main objective of the initiative is to improve the quality of regional and/or municipal regulation and legislation by publishing a regular peer review of socio-economic measures proposed or implemented by local government bodies in Ukraine. The purpose of the assessment is to describe practices that may also be applied by other administrations. Measures for evaluation were identified and analyzed with the support of the expert council, which was selected by  International Centre for Policy Studies based on their experience. Selected experts assessed the local measures and policies adopted by local and regional authorities. In total, six local and regional events are currently evaluated. Three of them are innovative and can have a significant positive impact on the economic and social development of Ukraine. We hope that this practice can promote good ideas and inspire their implementation throughout the territory of Ukraine. The evaluation can be found here: http://icps.com.ua/assets/uploads/images/images/eu/local_measures_ukraine_march_2019_.pdf...

ICPS Press
01.04.2019

Populism or systemic reforms: what candidates for the President of Ukraine promise?

The experts of the International Centre for Policy Studies presented research on candidates' election programs, their views on the development of economic and domestic policies and principles on which they are planning to build their own national development strategies. The candidates for the President of Ukraine in the next elections on March 31, 2019 in their programs manipulate the low level of education of Ukrainians. This was stated by the expert on internal policy of the International Center for Policy Studies Maxym Stepanenko during expert discussion in “Ukrinform”. “One can also say that presidential candidates are manipulating the low political education of Ukrainians, and therefore they are trying to sell as much air as possible,” Stepanenko said during presentation of the program analysis of candidates for the President of Ukraine. He stressed that candidates' programs are the same; it is difficult to distinguish them, not from one another, but from past programs. According to the expert, this suggests that the problems that candidates are proposing to resolve are still relevant, respectively, - “their old programs and promises were not effective”. In this regard, the expert Igor Petrenko noted that real competition for electoral sympathies is still due to pressure on the irrational. “We see that this is first and foremost an image, something with which the presidential candidate is associated, and with regard to programs, they also can write about free bread,” he said. Among the most widespread promises of presidential candidates that the expert has singled out is the promise of a tax reform that occurs in 33 candidate programs, 27 candidates promise to implement medical reform, and 24 - judicial. The same number of them promises to raise social standards. At the same time, Stepanenko said, there is a promise to carry out anti-corruption reform in the programs of 19 candidates, and constitutional - in 17. 17 candidates for the presidency mention the support of the Euro-Atlantic course of Ukraine and the promise to introduce a norm on the election of judges. “More relevant issues for today's Ukraine are plans for building a professional army that could protect us from Russian aggression in Donbas and establish territorial integrity and sovereignty. Also, the process of decentralization was actualized - 23 presidential candidates promise to stimulate it, expand the rights of communities, and contribute in every way to this process,” Stepanenko said. At the same time, according to him, only in the programs of 12 presidential candidates the attention to the issue of labor migrants returning to Ukraine was paid. Research via the link (Ukrainian version): LINK...

ICPS Press
13.03.2019

ICPS conducted diplomatic briefing “Inside Ukraine”

ICPS presented analytical newsletter “Inside Ukraine” for representatives of the diplomatic corps. Igor Petrenko, having analyzed the domestic political programs of the main candidates for the post of the President of Ukraine, noted the prevalence of populist promises with appeals more to the voter's emotions than to the rational perception of reality. At the same time, there are a number of systemic positive steps and proposals that are different from the general populist vision of the country's development. In general, some proposals of the above-mentioned candidates are general and require considerable efforts not only from the side of the president, but also from other authorities on whom the president may not have influence. That is, almost all candidates in their proposals went far beyond the constitutional powers of the President of Ukraine. And this means that after gaining power after the elections, the candidates without any support for the parliamentary majority can hardly realize anything. Also, most of the program proposals require profound constitutional changes, which further complicate the possibility of their implementation and actualize the issue of the need to ensure the legitimacy and inclusiveness of the constitutional process in Ukraine. A common denominator in all programs is the issue of deepening the country's decentralization and increasing the capacity of communities. Anticorruption, judicial and law enforcement reforms are recognized as priorities by the majority of candidates by default. The link that unites candidates, to a greater extent, is the transformation of Ukraine into a parliamentary republic (Poroshenko and Grytsenko do not want to change the form of government). Oleg Lyashko is the only one who proposes the presidential republic. All candidates, without exception, seek to see the Ukrainian army modernized and well-armed. “Often candidates appeal to the institute of referendum and other forms of direct democracy, which in our opinion, is not fully justified and carries the danger of manipulation,” the expert said. Regarding the economic aspect, in general, the analysis of programs showed that the topic of foreign economic relations is not sufficiently disclosed in the documents of candidates. None of them refer to the country's debt obligations, the need to deepen co-operative ties and partnerships with its neighbors, technology attraction, and so on. The same internal “focus” prevails with ignoring external factors and the world situation. At the same time, there is an equation on European standards of living and wages. After five years of implementation, decentralization demonstrates results in its financial aspect mainly. The reluctance of the central government to provide real independence to the regions leads to contradictions between local and central authorities in matters of public administration in areas of critical importance to society, such as education, health care, development of local infrastructure and economic development of the regions. In addition, the duration of the decentralization process indicates that there are also weaknesses in decentralization that are directly related to the implementation of this reform. The imperfection of the legislative framework, the need to accelerate the pace of UTCs, the inability of the institutions to fulfill their new functions and the interest of local elites to “reverse” decentralization for their own benefit are all challenges that need to be addressed to transform decentralization into a success story. Please contact us for more details, ordering, reviewing issues and familiarization with subscription terms: e-mail: office@icps.com.ua...

ICPS Press
28.02.2019

Internal policy of Ukraine: results of 2018 and forecast for 2019

2018 was accompanied by constant political turbulence, which in fact became a systemic phenomenon in Ukrainian politics. There was no serious breakthrough in structural reforms, but some point changes were managed to realize. 2019 will be marked by the elections. The parade of candidates will increase political uncertainty in the first half of the year. Structural reforms will go to the background, at least until the end of the entire election period. Any qualitative changes in all the hot issues of internal politics will be possible only after the parliamentary elections, but the vector of these changes is difficult to predict, as Ukraine once again finds itself at a crossroads. Achievements and failures of 2018 The achievements of the Ukrainian authorities in 2018 include: 1. Preservation of authorities` efficiency. Presidential Administration, BPP and NF managed to preserve the existing political structure and provide the opportunity to make decisions. However, the crisis in the relations between BPP and NF is deepened, and, besides finding allies for important voting, these parties spend a lot of time to coordinate positions between them. It is increasingly difficult for the president to keep his own agenda in parliament. Parliament, though with difficulty, but continues to adopt government laws, the government works without much shocks and stupor. The duality of the executive branch though intensifies the relationship between the president and the prime minister, but does not lead to catastrophic conflicts between them. 2. Continued implementation of reforms. In 2018, the implementation of decentralization, health-care and education reforms continued. The decentralization reform is the most successful, as evidenced by the dynamics of the creation of new UTCs and the increase of local budgets. As for the implementation of the health-care reform, the transition to a family doctor system has started and it has results in the form of millions of signed declarations of citizens with doctors, but real changes are still poorly felt. Some family doctors began to receive new wages. The reform of education system has more problems, in particular through realization at local level, but its implementation continues. In addition, Ukrainian politicians finally managed to adopt the law on the anti-corruption court, the formation of which will allow continuation of the implementation of anti-corruption reform. However, one should understand that its adoption is largely the merit of international partners of Ukraine and the public sector, rather than the representatives of the authorities themselves. It is also possible to note the adoption of the law on privatization, which, according to the people's deputies' plan, should create transparent and understandable conditions for privatization in Ukraine. However, the law has been adopted, but the privatization itself has not actually been carried out. Finally, the launch of the SBI, however, was accompanied by numerous scandals. 3. Preservation of cooperation between Ukraine and IMF. Given the high debt burden on the budget of Ukraine, as well as the fragile financial stability of Ukraine, it is important to conclude a new program of cooperation between Ukraine and IMF. Ukraine is planning to receive the first tranche in 2018, subject to a positive decision by the IMF Board of Directors on December 18 this year. It should also be emphasized that the conditions of cooperation between Ukraine and IMF act as a basis (main driver) for carrying out structural reforms. In addition, continued cooperation between Ukraine and IMF automatically expands the list of potential sources for attraction of funds on foreign markets by Ukraine. The failures of the Ukrainian authorities in 2018 include: 1. The low quality of democracy, the strengthening of anti-liberal tendencies. Despite a certain weakening of the president's position, he continues to monopolize the power in his hands. Formally, while not belonging to any of the branches of government, due to the exclusive influence on the GPU and the SSU, the informal mechanisms of personal commitments, as well as the largest faction in the parliament, president Poroshenko has an exclusive influence both on the government and parliament, and on the judicial branch, which, after judicial reform, actually came out under the influence of the Verkhovna Rada. Currently, there is practically no criticism of the president among the Ukrainian media, and the authorities' attacks on media have increased, which allow criticism of the current president. Pressure on journalists and representatives of civil society organizations (the use of physical violence against them) by law enforcement agencies and various “titushki”, as well as representatives of nationalist movements, became a common phenomenon. Against the background of increasing the role of representatives of the public sector in state-building processes, the opposition of the authorities to this trend increases proportionally. Representatives of the authorities continue to use fake or manual NGOs, which are members of the supervisory boards of state bodies. There were frequent cases of open hostility between government officials and civil organizations and activists. An apogee in 2018 was the murder of activist Kateryna Gandzyuk and the apparent sabotage of the crime investigation process by law enforcement agencies. There are numerous attacks on activists in the regions. 2. Critical politicization of the work of state authorities. In terms of the pre-election year, voting in the parliament was more like election campaigning than real legislative work. The pressure on political forces by opening criminal cases on separate deputies, holding dirty PR campaigns to discredit political opponents, etc., became merely common. All this has a very negative effect on the institutional capacity of the entire state machinery. The distrust of citizens towards state authorities is critical. The GPU, the SSU, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and recently SAP and NABU are used in Ukraine as institutes of political competition; in most cases the law enforcement function is secondary to them. 3. Security situation. Today, the level of insecurity among Ukrainian citizens is the largest in the history of Ukraine's independence. The streets of the Ukrainian capital and other cities are no longer safe for politicians, businessmen, journalists, ordinary citizens. The security issue is being actualized not so much in the context of the war in the East, but in increasing the number of publicly commissioned murders, gang raids, terrorist attacks, and explosions of military warehouses in the deep rear. The level of security in Ukraine is approaching a threatening level, when the state actually becomes unable to meet the basic needs of society, which in the end can lead to the destruction of statehood. 4. The war in Donbas and Crimea. In 2018, the issue of de-occupation of non-controlled territories did not have any positive dynamics. This concerns not only the actual issue of the return of the temporarily occupied territories, but also the question of establishing a strategy for the gradual reintegration of these areas, ensuring the rights (in particular electoral) of IDPs and implementing their social guarantees. The authorities are actively using Russian aggression for internal political use in order to receive electoral dividends during future elections. 5. Lack of results in the fight against corruption. Despite the fact that almost all the necessary anti-corruption infrastructure was established before 2018, these authorities continue to demonstrate the lack of real results in the fight against corruption. The reason for this is, first of all, the political engagement of anti-corruption bodies, which increasingly play along with the authorities, in particular Presidential Administration and less engaged in a real fight against corruption. Also, the conflict between NABU and SAP, GPU, Security Service of Ukraine and Ministry of Internal Affairs, also has a negative impact on the actual result of the anti-corruption policy and law-enforcement system as a whole.In addition, the SSU has not lost its non-specific functions of combating corruption, which requires business,  public sector and international partners of Ukraine. Also at the stage of creation of the High Anti-Corruption Court there was a series of attempts on the part of the authorities to gain control over this anti-corruption institution.    Positions of the main political players The president has lost some of his influence, but continues to be a figure №1. Yulia Tymoshenko is gaining strength, who, with her political strength, is firmly entrenched in the first place in political ratings. Narodnyi Front is increasingly moving away from Poroshenko, trying to build his own game, looking for new allies and new playback formats in power.The white and blue camp ends the year with a split day of "Opposition bloc", where "gasovyky" and "akhmetivtsi" can not agree on the candidature of a single candidate for president. The liberal-democratic opposition was not able to unite and goes to elections in different columns, headed by Sadovy and Grytsenko.There was also no complete consolidation in the nationalist camp, from which Ruslan Koshulynsky and “Svoboda” and Andriy Biletsky “National Corps” run for the presidency. Yulia Tymoshenko and “Batkivshchyna”. Yulia Tymoshenko started her unofficial presidential campaign in the beginning of summer. She was the first who announced her intention to run for the presidency and introduced her program "New course". She and her political force are now the leaders of all sociological ratings According to the latest sociological research conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology among Ukrainians, who decided to vote,  21.2% are ready to vote for Yulia Tymoshenko, 23.4% - for the All-Ukrainian Association “Batkivshchyna”. Tymoshenko is always open to the search for new allies. Today, her allies include Valentyn Nalyvaichenko and his party “Spravedlyvist”, as well as Sergiy Taruta and his “Osnova” party. She establishes a dialogue with the leaders of the “Narodnyi Front”. And given not very attractive prospects for this party (its rating according to the latest results of social surveys is 0.2%), parliamentary deputies are often seen next to Tymoshenko's office. It's no secret that there is a good communication between Lady Yu and Arsen Avakov. His control of the security forces in the country can be useful while protecting election results. Friendship with the NF can be observed in her proposals for limiting the president's powers and turning Ukraine into a parliamentary republic, as previously stated by the "veterans". Also, recently, Yulia Tymoshenko stated that she is ready to cooperate with “Samopomich” party, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, if he goes to politics and Anatoly Grytsenko. Petro Poroshenko and BPP. The current president, Petro Poroshenko, has not officially announced his intentions to run for presidency, and promised to do it after the start of the election campaign. And he has something to think about. Low electoral support and humiliating ratings still open up to him insignificant prospects and uncomfortable electoral position. Of course, now he can not state that he is not going to the next elections, because he will immediately lose all his influence on decision-making in the country. Therefore, he is now actively demonstrating full readiness and positioning himself the only possible candidate from the authorities. Also, Petro Poroshenko is attempting to postpone the presidential elections or even unite their holding with parliamentary elections, which could give him the opportunity to preserve immunity, if not presidential, then at least get a deputy one. The president builds his pre-election rhetoric with the slogans: “Army. Language. Faith.”, “We Go Our Way,” “Get Away From Moscow.” However, such a rhetoric does not receive a special response from the public, as evidenced by the latest sociological data that records the support of the current president at 11.6% (among those who have been decided to vote), and 11.2% of the country's population support his party. Despite the third place in the rating, Poroshenko has a chance to go to the second round, but it will be very difficult to win because according to sociological research, he will lose to all his possible opponents. Although not everything is so simple. Once the closest companion, “one`s” prime minister, Volodymyr Groysman, shows more independence. First, he has his own political ambitions, and secondly, after a long conversation and bidding, he didn't want to lead the presidential political force and sit in the same boat with the president's team, and thirdly, he establishes close ties and looks for partners with other political forces, including Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Narodnyi Front. All this leads to the thought that there may be a serious split within the authorities. “Narodnyy front”. The recent appearance of Arseniy Yatsenyuk on billboards showed that the former prime minister apparently had forgotten about his complete fiasco in the government and also dreams of returning to the political Olympus. The tensions in his relationship with the president became especially noticeable. After all, the BPP and the NF don’t have a particular ideological difference, so Yatsenyuk, albeit with a poor rating, will still take away the president's electorate. The NF leader is clearly going to take over the pre-election campaign agenda of Poroshenko because Yatsenyuk's new advertisement sarcastically interprets the main pre-election slogans of the president. At present, the disparity of the faction is intensifying, various groups of influence in the party are actively looking for ways to play in power, picking up allies. It is likely that the NF will participate in the elections as different columns within political organizations. As of today, the NF has a part of the administrative resources, which the main applicants for power in the country want to get. Liberal-Democratic Powers. The union of liberal-democratic forces, which their leaders have been talking for so long, didn’t happen. A few months ago, the most recognizable of them - the head of "Hromadyanska pozytsiya" Anatoliy Hrytsenko, mayor of Lviv and leader of the "Samopomich" Andriy Sadovy, as well as people's deputy and the head of “Narodnyy kontrol” party Dmytro Dobrodomov publicly called on to leave personal political ambitions and unite. The first one to leave “the ship” was Sadovyy. He announced that he would run for the presidency and united with the “Democratic Alliance” political party of Vasyl Gatsko. Dmytro Dobrodomov also announced the intention to strive for the presidential post. Grytsenko, after unsuccessful attempt to create a joint platform with Dobrodomov, united efforts on presidential and parliamentary elections with the leader of the "Hromadskyy rukh "Khvylya" Viktor Chumak, who headed his election headquarters. Mykola Tomenko, leader of the "Ridna krayina" party and leader of the "European Party" Mykola Katerenchuk also expressed support for Anatoliy Hrytsenko as a candidate for president of Ukraine. Anatoliy Hrytsenko has the highest rating in this camp, who are ready to support 8.2% (among those who already determined their choice) of voters, and 9.1% of Ukrainian citizens are ready to vote for his "Hromadyanska pozytsiya". 2.2% of voters are ready to vote for Andriy Sadovy, 3.6% for the "Samopomich" Association". 0.5% are ready to support Dmytro Dobrodomov, and 0.4% - his party “Narodnyy kontrol”. There will be no special differences in their programs, although they position themselves differently. According to Sadovy, key elements of his campaign will be "mobilization of young people, breaking the corruptive  esprit de corps in politics and technological modernization of the country". Grytsenko’s campaign will be based on several key statements: legality, order, responsibility, honesty. Dobrodomov positions himself as an outspoken fighter against corruption. “Opposition block”. In the white-and-blue camp, a very difficult situation arose - the split between the two main groups of the party's influence, which had previously been conflicting, but never brought the opposition into the public plane. As a result, Yuriy Boyko and Serhiy Lyovochkin were expelled from the OB faction in the Verkhovna Rada, while Vadym Novinsky became the head of the faction. After that, Boyko and Lyovochkin created a separate parliamentary group in the parliament - "Opposition platform - For life". That is, in this field, we have two main centres of influence: the first one is represented by the so-called "Akhmetovs" (Akhmetov, Novinsky, Kolesnikov), and the second by the so-called "gasmen" and "pro-Russian politicians" - Boyko, Levochkin, Firtash, Medvedchuk and Rabinovich. At the moment, these two groups are leading a struggle for control over the "Opposition block". This confrontation doesn’t give political dividends, but only leads to the dispersal of the electorate and obviously complicates the chances of passing their candidates to the second round of the presidential election. It is likely that, both in the presidential and parliamentary elections, these politicians will move as two, separate and quarrelling with each other, columns. Nationalist powers. Ukrainian nationalists failed to unite. "Natsionalnyy korpus" decided not to support a compromise figure from the rest of nationalist organizations Ruslan Koshulinsky, a representative of the "The All-Ukrainian Union "Svoboda". Thus, Andriy Biletsky announced his independent campaign for the presidential election. According to the latest sociological research, Ukrainian nationalists don't have much support among Ukrainians. As follows, currently, Koshulinsky can count on the support of 0.9% of Ukrainian voters, and Biletsky - of 0.4%. The political party "VO "Svoboda" today has support in 2.2% of voters, and "Natsionalnyy korpus" - 0.6%. Most likely, Ukrainian nationalists will play the role of "violence traffickers", which will be used to pressure certain candidates or even to break the election in a particular district. The Jokers of Ukrainian politics. Ukrainian showman Vladimir Zelensky continues to increase his rating. According to the latest sociological research, he ranked second, 14.6% of voters (among those who already determined their choice) are ready to vote for him, and 13% for his political party "Servant of the people". And this despite the fact that Zelensky didn’t confirm his intention to participate. Interest in Zelensky as a presidential candidate was well-heated in the run-up to the election of a new part of the popular TV series "Servant of the people", where, according to the scenario, a simple teacher Vasyl Goloborodko, performed by Volodymyr Zelensky, receives the power in Ukraine. The series very successfully shows the real state of affairs in Ukrainian politics and prompts Ukrainians to vote for a non-systemic candidate - a simple guy from the people who is fed up with corruption, injustice, poverty, and who seeks to change everything by joining the struggle with the Ukrainian oligarchs. In fact, Ukrainians want to vote not so much for Zelensky, but for the image created by him in the series. His electorate is people, deeply disappointed with the classic politicians, who seek for the way to break the vicious circle of esprit de corps in Ukraine. However, when Zelensky will begin to speak political language, making the relevant statements and offering his options for solving the problems of our state, it's unlikely that his rating, will remain the same or will keep growing. Given the proximity of Zelensky to the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who in return supports Yulia Tymoshenko, there is a likelihood of Zelensky's refusal to take part in the presidential race. Nevertheless, we will most likely see his party in the election ballot at parliamentary elections. The rating of the musician Svyatoslav Vakarchuk "subsided" essentially: from the top three he moved to the 9th position with the assets of 3.8% of voters (among those who already determined their choice), essentially "subsided". Obviously, his electorate was tired of waiting for him to confirm his participation in the presidential election and began to consider alternative options. It is believed that Vakarchuk could become a reserve option for Poroshenko by “giving the way”, but at the same time he will solely run  for parliamentary elections within “Vakarchuk block”. But such a variant may be beneficial for the current president only in the case of simultaneous holding of presidential and parliamentary elections. Perhaps a military state will be able to help Poroshenko in this "special operation". It is also worth noting that so-called “Vakarchuk block” can count on only 4.1% of the support of Ukrainian voters. There is a high probability that the 2019 elections will be a battle of jokers. Under these conditions, we will have Vakarchuk and Zelensky in the second round, however, behind their backs one can see quite familiar oligarchic silhouettes. General forecast of the situation The defining trend for 2019 will be presidential elections and the further domestic development of Ukraine's political will depend on how they will be held. Accordingly, we distinguish three baseline scenarios. The first scenario (pessimistic). Failure of the election process, destabilization, Maidan 3.0. In this scenario, Ukraine faces great political instability, massive mass protests and a high probability of street violence. In such a situation, our country will be on the verge of entering the category of "failed state". There is a high probability that Russia will want to use such a state of affairs, and will be able to  at least expand its zone of effective control or even occupate; as a maximum, it will carry out a military sweep of the country and ultimately return Ukraine to its womb. The other side of this scenario could become an adoption of authoritarian power in Ukraine by the current authorities. Second scenario (basic). Presidential elections will take place, but they will be accompanied by an active use of violence and a debate on the recognition or non-recognition of their results both inside the country and abroad (other states). A similar situation will be repeated in parliamentary elections. The confidence in the state bodies thus formed will be low, the decision-making process is complicated, but in general, the institutional capacity of the state will be at a more or less acceptable level, although the implementation of structural reforms will be complicated by a high level of political conflict. The third scenario (optimistic). Presidential elections will take place in a civilized way. The transfer of power (or its preservation under the current president) will take place under all democratic procedures. Parliamentary elections will be held democratically and without systemic violations. And by the end of the year, Ukraine will have a legitimate president, a parliament and a government that can effectively carry out structural reforms and develop the country. Of course, political conflict will remain, but in such a scenario, it will be at a minimal level and will not constitute a serious threat. In any case, the results of the presidential election will have a decisive influence on parliamentary races. The latter will determine the political life in the second half of 2019. The situation is complicated by the fact that it is almost impossible to foresee parliamentary elections. First, because of the uncertainty of the election results of the head of state, and secondly, due to the large number of political forces and the small electoral gap between them. The results of the presidential elections structure the political field, promote the formation of new political alliances and the crystallization of political forces through the power opposition. Given the victory of Yulia Tymoshenko, there is an option to hold a constitutional assembly, which will turn Ukraine into a parliamentary republic of the chancellor type. For this, Tymoshenko will have to initiate an all-Ukrainian referendum, which legitimizes her plan and will launch a radical change in the system of public administration in the country. Under such a scenario, it is possible to postpone parliamentary elections at a later time after the referendum, and then the price of such elections will be very high, since the whole power of power in the country will stand on the horse. It should be noted that constitutional changes to simplify the president's position and the introduction of a parliamentary republic are supported by most of the NF. In addition, the transformation of Ukraine into a parliamentary republic may also be beneficial to the political forces of the white-and-blue camp. To prevent such a course of events may be a significant political turbulence, the economic crisis, as well as the peak period of payments for external borrowing. A separate issue that deserves attention is the relationship between the president (old / new) and the government in the period after the presidential and parliamentary elections. The fact is that, in accordance with the Constitution, the Cabinet of Ministers terminates its work in the following cases: the conferral of powers to the newly elected VRU; voluntary resignation of the prime minister; the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a resolution of no confidence in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. That is, the election of a new president does not directly affect the resignation of the government, without the influence on which head of state is very difficult to promote their will. With the abandonment of the post of Petro Poroshenko, these special changes are unlikely to happen. However, in case the president will pick up a new person, there are still several options for his interaction with the government (see below). Option 1 - the new president will be able to reform the government and appoint a nominal prime minister to parliamentary elections. Option 2 - the current composition of the government and the newly elected president will find a common language, will consolidate areas of interest and in more or less consensus will reach the parliamentary elections. Option 3 - the president and the government will enter the clinch and will resist each other. In fact, Ukraine will burgeal in the times of the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko. By the end of November, the process of formation of state-political institutes in Ukraine will be completed. It is also worth bearing in mind that in addition to the threats posed by the elections in Ukraine, there are other dangers that will in one or another way determine the agenda for domestic political discourse, namely aggression of the Russian Federation, the war in the Donbass, the occupation of the Crimea, the Azov crisis, the need for payments for external borrowing. Decisive influence on the outlined situation may be the introduction of martial law throughout the country.    ...

ICPS Press
21.12.2018